Demand Forecasting Lead

About the role

This role serves as the central architect for global demand signals at Tonies, transforming sales history and market indicators into a unified baseline forecast. You will operate within a Center of Excellence to standardize forecasting processes, improve planning maturity, and ensure alignment across supply chain and commercial teams.

Key facts

What you'll do

• Own the end-to-end forecasting process from initial data intake through to monthly demand reviews.
• Define global forecasting calendars and collaboration standards between central and regional teams.
• Integrate market intelligence into statistical baselines while maintaining clear visibility on human overrides.
• Align inventory planning for hardware and dependent SKUs to prevent stock-outs.
• Select and tune statistical models, including exponential smoothing and regression, to accommodate diverse demand patterns.
• Manage product lifecycles and new product introductions using look-alike modeling and phase-out strategies.
• Track performance metrics like WAPE and Bias, conducting root-cause analysis to ensure forecast accuracy.
• Cleanse historical data to remove distortions and partner with IT to automate workflows and improve planning dashboards.

Requirements

• Bachelor degree in Statistics, Supply Chain, Industrial Engineering, Economics, or a related field.
• Minimum 5 years of professional experience in consumer electronics, gaming, or licensed entertainment.
• Proven history of managing platform-to-consumable product lifecycles.
• Deep understanding of time series analysis, seasonality, and model governance.
• Demonstrated ability to work in a COE capacity, setting standards and influencing stakeholders.
• Hands-on experience with planning tools such as SAP IBP, o9, Kinaxis, or Blue Yonder.
• Advanced proficiency in Excel.
• Fluent English skills.

Nice to have

• SQL proficiency.
• Experience with Python or R.
• Exposure to machine learning or AI in forecasting contexts.
• German language skills.

Skills & tools

• Demand planning software (SAP IBP, o9, Kinaxis, or Blue Yonder)
• Statistical modeling
• Data analysis
• Excel
• SQL (preferred)
• Python/R (plus)

Practical notes

• Benefits include 30 days of annual leave plus three additional holidays (Rosenmontag, Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve).
• Employees are eligible for 10 unpaid toniecation days after one year of service.
• Mobility options include a Deutschlandticket, parking subsidies, or bike leasing.
• Additional perks include company pension support, occupational disability insurance, individual learning budgets, and subscriptions to Babbel and Calm.
• Tonies provides employee discounts on all products.
• The company is committed to inclusion and diversity in all hiring practices.